MMarketing Against The Grain
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22 December 2022

5 Huge Trends That Will Change Marketing In 2023

2Frameworks
8Insights

Frameworks in this episode

Marketing6 steps

Audience Gatekeeper Sponsorship Method

Reach niche buyers by partnering directly with the people who already gather them

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Strategy6 steps

The Great Marketing Unbundling Model

Spot channel disruption early and diversify before incumbents lose efficiency

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Insights & moments

The myth-busts, hot takes, explainers, and tools worth keeping.

Myth Buster· 1

Myth Buster25:30

Email Is Not Dying, but It Is No Longer the Only Messaging Channel

The hosts dispute whether messaging applications are cannibalizing email or merely adding new communication options. They ultimately agree that email remains valuable and continues to grow, but marketers sacrifice opportunities when they ignore WhatsApp, SMS, iMessage, and social DMs.

  • Email usage has continued growing year over year.
  • Messaging behavior varies significantly by country.
  • WhatsApp can produce stronger engagement in some markets.
  • Businesses should follow how their customers prefer to communicate.

“messaging is additive, not cannibalizing email.”

Kieran Flanagan · 26:30

“if you are just focused on email, you are sacrificing growth in your business.”

Kipp Bodnar · 30:30
#email#whatsapp#sms#customer messaging#localization

Hot Take· 2

Hot Take07:30

Modern Tracking Could Make Out-of-Home Advertising a Major Digital Rival

Kipp argues that out-of-home advertising is gaining digital-style tracking, analytics, and retargeting capabilities. Its much lower average CPM could make marketers tolerate less-perfect attribution in exchange for substantial cost savings.

  • Offline placements are gaining online-style measurement mechanics.
  • Campaigns can connect billboard exposure with digital retargeting.
  • The cited out-of-home CPM is about one dollar.
  • The cited average digital CPM ranges from $25 to $35.

“One of the reasons that advertising is going to become unbundled is because a lot of the traditional advertising that was offline is about to…”

Kipp Bodnar · 07:30

“It's a dollar per thousand, and the average digital CPM is somewhere between $25 and $35.”

Kipp Bodnar · 09:00
#out-of-home#attribution#retargeting#cpm#adtech
Hot Take11:00

Streaming's Ad-Supported Future Looks Suspiciously Like Cable

The hosts expect more ad-supported streaming options and discuss Netflix's potential to combine viewer data with targeted advertising. Kipp notes the irony that subscription streaming is recreating the paid, ad-supported cable model it was supposed to replace.

  • Ad-supported streaming gives marketers another targeted channel.
  • Netflix could connect customer profiles with viewing behavior.
  • Content production economics are pushing streaming services toward ads.
  • Consumers may pay subscription fees and still receive advertising.

“There's gonna be more I think options on these free to stream ads support and TV networks.”

Kieran Flanagan · 11:00

“isn't this kind of depressing that were really just reinventing cable television?”

Kipp Bodnar · 11:30
#streaming#netflix#connected tv#advertising#cable

Explainer· 3

Explainer04:30

Why Google and Facebook Ads Are Losing Their Economic Advantage

The hosts describe how crowding, privacy rules, and rising prices are weakening the economics of dominant advertising platforms. Google remains a major channel, but a reported 91% increase in cost per lead makes alternatives increasingly attractive.

  • Google and Facebook historically concentrated most digital ad demand.
  • AdWords cost per lead reportedly increased by 91%.
  • Privacy and data restrictions make targeting more difficult.
  • Poorer economics create room for competing ad channels.

“Google AdWords, there it is, cost per lead has increased by 91%.”

Kieran Flanagan · 05:00

“So that is a lot of money you have to pay to get the leads from the Google AdWords.”

Kieran Flanagan · 05:00
#paid advertising#google ads#facebook ads#privacy#cpl
Explainer06:30

Uber, DoorDash, and Airlines Are Becoming Advertising Platforms

Uber, DoorDash, and in-flight entertainment systems illustrate how companies with captive or highly engaged users can build their own advertising networks. These environments offer marketers new inventory outside the traditional Google-Facebook duopoly.

  • Uber can show ads to riders during journeys.
  • DoorDash is expanding self-service options for advertisers.
  • In-flight digital advertising could become a multibillion-dollar market.
  • Specialized networks may offer more contextual audience access.

“Uber announced states advertising network, so it shows ads to riders, so as they travel to their destination.”

Kieran Flanagan · 06:30

“They think that that market is gonna be worth, like digital advertising on planes will be worth about 3.3 billion by 2030.”

Kieran Flanagan · 07:30
#ad networks#uber#doordash#airlines#retail media
Explainer19:00

Search Is Fragmenting Across ChatGPT, Reddit, TikTok, and YouTube

The hosts argue that Google's greatest threat may not be another conventional search engine but entirely new categories of search. Community, video, and conversational AI each answer different queries better than a traditional results page.

  • Reddit offers community-based search.
  • TikTok and YouTube answer visually oriented queries.
  • ChatGPT provides direct conversational answers.
  • New search categories can disrupt Google without copying Google.

“I don't think they will, but I think they will get disrupted by someone who creates a new category of search, and make the current…”

Kieran Flanagan · 19:30

“I've seen some really interesting people tweet that they've replaced half of their time on Google already with ChatGPT”

Kieran Flanagan · 20:00
#search#chatgpt#reddit#tiktok#youtube

Q&A· 1

Q&A21:00

Will Conversational AI Be Funded by Ads or Subscriptions?

Kipp and Kieran debate whether conversational AI will produce a successor to AdWords. Kipp expects sponsored inclusion or shared ad marketplaces, while Kieran believes specialized assistants can monetize through subscriptions and avoid a winner-take-all search market.

  • AI queries have real infrastructure costs.
  • Kipp expects freemium products to seek advertising revenue.
  • Kieran expects specialized assistants to support subscription models.
  • The viability of ads depends partly on whether conversational search consolidates.

“What does the next AdWords look like in this kind of unbundled search world?”

Kipp Bodnar · 21:00

“I don't think you need to monetize through ads, you can actually monetize through a subscription because you're servicing a smaller segment of the market…”

Kieran Flanagan · 22:00
#ai advertising#chatgpt#subscriptions#freemium#search

Takeaway· 1

Takeaway17:00

Why Google's Monetization Pressure Threatens Organic Search Traffic

Kipp predicts that declining search dominance would lead Google to increase monetization pressure on remaining users. More prominent advertising could reduce the organic traffic available to marketers even before Google loses its central role.

  • Aggregators tend to monetize users more aggressively under financial pressure.
  • More search ads leave less room for organic results.
  • Similar pressure can reduce free reach on social platforms.
  • Marketers should not assume historical organic traffic levels will persist.

“your organic search traffic from Google is going to go down”

Kipp Bodnar · 17:00

“as that aggregator has monetization pressure, it gets harder and harder to do or get organic or free benefit.”

Kipp Bodnar · 18:30
#google#organic search#seo#monetization#platform risk