25 January 2024

Why Netflix, YouTube & Spotify Bailed On Apple Vision Pro

2Frameworks

8Insights

Frameworks in this episode

Strategy6 steps

Emerging Platform Readiness Scan

Study early behavior before committing marketing resources to an emerging platform.

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Marketing5 steps

Replacement Value Story

Reframe an expensive product as a simpler replacement for many valuable tools.

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Insights & moments

The myth-busts, hot takes, explainers, and tools worth keeping.

Hot Take· 1

Hot Take13:00

Apple Deliberately Traded Headset Weight for Capability

Unlike Apple products criticized for conservative hardware, Vision Pro is described as genuinely cutting edge. The episode argues that Apple accepted additional weight because the advanced hardware was necessary to make the product's defining experiences work.

Vision Pro hardware is characterized as unusually cutting edge for Apple.
The headset's weight may be a deliberate capability tradeoff.
Core features likely required the heavier first-generation hardware.

“The Vision Pro Hardware is not that it is very cuttingedge hardware”
13:00

“they made the choice to sacrifice the weight for The Cutting Edge hardware”
13:30

#hardware#product-design#apple#tradeoffs

Explainer· 4

Explainer01:30

Why Apple Calls Vision Pro “Spatial Computing”

Apple avoids placing Vision Pro inside the established AR and VR category, instead presenting it as spatial computing. The terminology extends through features such as spatial videos and supports the claim that Vision Pro is an operating system, marketplace, and ecosystem rather than merely another headset.

Apple is attempting to create a new category.
Spatial terminology is repeated across the product's features.
The positioning expands Vision Pro beyond a standalone device.

“they're calling it spatial Computing and they're trying to create a new category”
01:30

“it is not just a new device it is a completely reimagined operating system Marketplace and ecosystem”
02:30

#apple#positioning#spatial-computing#category-creation

Explainer10:00

Vision Pro Looks Like a First-Generation iPhone Moment

The episode compares Vision Pro with the original iPhone: transformational and exciting, but expensive and built mainly for extreme early adopters. Weight and short unplugged battery life are identified as the most significant first-generation limitations.

Both products entered the market as expensive early-adopter devices.
Vision Pro reviewers consistently raised concerns about headset weight.
Unplugged battery life is estimated at two to two and a half hours.
The limitations are framed as solvable across later generations.

“this is a product for early adopters the biggest issues are battery life and weight”
10:30

“without being plugged in you're looking at two to two and a half hours of battery for the Vision Pro”
11:00

#apple#vision-pro#early-adopters#hardware

Explainer13:30

The Two Possible Futures for Vision Pro

Vision Pro could settle into a niche of roughly 5 to 15 million users or grow into a market serving hundreds of millions over five to ten years. The “Pro” name also leaves room for Apple to introduce a lower-priced mass-market Vision product.

The long-term market size remains the central uncertainty.
A niche outcome could still support millions of users.
A mass-market outcome would require hundreds of millions of adopters.
A non-Pro model could lower the price barrier.

“is this a niche market where you have maybe 5 to 15 million people using it or is this a big Market where you have…”
13:30

“it does open the door for them to just create an apple Vision product that is not professional that is lower lower priced Hardware”
17:30

#market-size#apple#vision-pro#adoption

Explainer15:30

AI Personas Could Reshape Virtual Collaboration

Vision Pro's FaceTime experience generates a digital persona instead of displaying a live image of someone wearing a headset. Cameras translate facial movement into the persona in real time, suggesting a possible future interface for meetings and customer collaboration.

FaceTime avoids showing the user wearing the headset.
An AI-generated persona represents the user.
Headset cameras capture facial movement in real time.
The interaction model may influence future virtual meetings.

“it's a AI generated Persona of you and all of your facial movements in real time that are taken by all the cameras on Vision…”
15:30

“I think that's a future way of how you might have virtual collaboration virtual meetings”
15:30

#ai-personas#facetime#collaboration#vision-pro

Q&A· 1

Q&A12:00

Why Netflix, YouTube, and Spotify Skipped Vision Pro

Major media companies initially declined to build dedicated Vision Pro apps because the launch audience was too small to justify ongoing development. The decision is presented as a rational wait for evidence that Apple can create a sufficiently large and active ecosystem.

Initial Vision Pro sales were estimated at 180,000 to 200,000 units.
Mainstream business value requires millions or tens of millions of devices.
Dedicated apps require teams that can maintain the platform experience.
Large publishers are waiting for stronger ecosystem evidence.

“you're not going to have mainstream business value till there are millions or tens of millions of devices out there”
12:00

“I think they're waiting to see hey is this going to be a big enough and vibrant enough ecosystem that it's worth having a team…”
12:30

#netflix#youtube#spotify#platform-economics#vision-pro

Tool· 1

Tool18:00

Disney's Kinetic Floor Lets VR Users Walk in Place

Disney's kinetic floor is presented as an enabling technology for immersive environments. It allows a person to walk in any direction while remaining physically contained, reducing the risk of colliding with walls during exploration.

The floor supports walking in place.
Users can explore a virtual environment through 360 degrees.
Supporting technologies beyond headsets are needed for stronger immersion.

“Disney shared that they have created a kinetic floor that allows you to basically walk in place”
18:00

“you can just completely explore in a 360 environment in a way that we haven't been able to before”
18:30

#disney#virtual-reality#kinetic-floor#immersion

Takeaway· 1

Takeaway19:00

AR and VR Must Become 10 Times More Valuable

Mass adoption will require more than one company's headset. Apple, Meta, Disney, and other innovators must collectively produce an experience that is dramatically more useful and compelling than existing alternatives.

A merely incremental improvement will not unlock mass adoption.
The required advances span hardware, software, and physical interfaces.
Vision Pro is framed as progress rather than a complete solution.
Market growth depends on innovation across the ecosystem.

“you have to have an experience a product a marketing message that is 10 times better 10 times more valuable in the competition”
19:00

“apple Vision Pro is a huge step in that direction but it can't get there alone”
19:30

#ar#vr#innovation#product-value#adoption