Emerging-Technology Test Portfolio
Run many bounded technology tests and scale the few that ignite growth.
- Difficulty
- Moderate
- Time to result
- ~months to results
- Steps
- 6
- Confidence
- 90%
The portfolio approach continuously scans emerging technologies for changes that could alter consumer behavior, production economics, or distribution. Rather than selecting one trend and making an oversized speculative commitment, the team runs several bounded experiments with explicit hypotheses, budgets, durations, and evidence thresholds. Failure is expected across most tests and is acceptable when it produces reusable learning at controlled cost. The small number of experiments that demonstrate exceptional audience, product, or distribution leverage receive deeper investment and instrumentation. This asymmetric structure limits downside while preserving access to early-mover upside, where one successful test can ignite growth before competitors establish mature practices.
Origin
Extracted from Marketing Against The Grain as the hosts' closing recommendation for responding to emerging technology.
Core principles
- 01Most emerging-technology tests should be expected to fail.
- 02A small number of successful tests can create disproportionate growth.
- 03Bounded experiments preserve learning while limiting downside.
- 04Continuous monitoring is required because opportunities appear before best practices.
How to run it
- 1
Scan for relevant shifts
Track technologies that could change how the target audience discovers, creates, collaborates, buys, or uses products.
Pro tip Focus on changed behavior or economics rather than technical novelty alone.
Watch out Do not test every trend without a connection to the business.
- 2
Write a growth hypothesis
State how the technology could produce a specific audience, product, or distribution advantage.
Pro tip Name the mechanism and the observable signal expected.
Watch out A test without a falsifiable hypothesis becomes exploratory spending.
- 3
Bound the experiment
Set the maximum budget, duration, workload, and downside before starting.
Pro tip Make each test small enough that several can run within the portfolio.
Watch out Do not let sunk costs extend an inconclusive experiment indefinitely.
- 4
Run and document
Execute the test, capture outcomes, and record what failed or transferred to other opportunities.
Pro tip Standardize experiment records so results can be compared.
Watch out Do not hide failed tests; the portfolio assumes they will occur.
- 5
Scale asymmetric winners
Invest more heavily in the one or two tests showing unusual leverage or strategic fit.
Pro tip Move quickly while the advantage remains underexploited.
Watch out Early promise still requires better instrumentation as investment grows.
- 6
Stop and refresh
Terminate tests that miss their evidence threshold and replenish the portfolio with new hypotheses.
Pro tip Carry forward learning without preserving failed implementations.
Watch out A portfolio filled with lingering tests leaves no capacity for new opportunities.
In the wild
A marketing team runs four six-week tests across new AI production tools, creator platforms, and tokenized community mechanics. Three fail to produce qualified attention, but one cuts native video production costs and doubles experimentation speed. The team ends the weak tests and scales the production workflow.
→ Bounded failures buy access to one scalable growth advantage without exposing the company to a single large bet.
Common mistakes
Betting everything on one trend
An all-in commitment turns normal experimental uncertainty into an unacceptable company-level risk.
Treating all failure as waste
Controlled failures are part of the method when they generate credible evidence and improve future decisions.
Testing without stopping rules
Experiments can become permanent projects if budgets, durations, and evidence thresholds are not defined in advance.
Is it for you?
Best for
It is best for growth-oriented teams that can afford several controlled experiments and recognize upside before a channel becomes mature.
Not ideal for
It is not ideal for organizations lacking capacity to measure tests, contain downside, or operationalize a successful result.
From the transcript
“keep a very close eye on emerging technology.”
“And we would run tests and most of them would fail, but we would find one or two things that really hit, and that would…”
From the episode
How to Build A World-Class Distribution Engine