Goal-to-Channel Growth Math
Work backward from a growth goal to the plays and conversions required
- Difficulty
- Moderate
- Time to result
- ~weeks to results
- Steps
- 6
- Confidence
- 96%
Begin with a concrete business outcome, such as adding 100 customers per month, and work backward through the acquisition funnel. Estimate how much of that outcome existing plays can deliver if executed well, then isolate the unmet portion. Convert that gap into the number of purchases, demos or sign-ups, and visits required at realistic conversion rates. Those numbers establish guardrails for deciding whether to build an advertising, YouTube, search, or other acquisition play. The mechanism prevents a small team from choosing channels because they are fashionable and instead ties each experiment to a measurable contribution. Alignment between the CEO and marketing owner keeps the model connected to company growth expectations.
Origin
Extracted from Marketing Against the Grain during Kip and Dave Gerhardt's response to a seed-stage SaaS marketer seeking a more diversified acquisition mix.
Core principles
- 01Set a concrete customer-growth target before selecting tactics
- 02Credit existing plays for the results they can realistically produce
- 03Express the remaining gap as traffic, conversion, and sales requirements
- 04Choose new channels according to the gap rather than fashion
How to run it
- 1
Set the outcome
Define the exact number of customers or amount of revenue the business must add during a fixed period.
Pro tip Agree on the number with the CEO before discussing channels.
Watch out A vague objective such as “grow awareness” cannot support backward planning.
- 2
Forecast existing plays
Estimate how much of the goal current channels can produce with strong execution rather than radical changes.
Pro tip Use recent performance as the baseline.
Watch out Do not assume a mature channel can suddenly multiply without evidence.
- 3
Measure the gap
Subtract the forecast contribution from the overall target to reveal what new plays must deliver.
- 4
Build the funnel math
Apply realistic conversion rates backward from purchases to demos, sign-ups, and visits.
Pro tip Model conservative and expected cases.
Watch out Small errors in conversion assumptions compound across funnel stages.
- 5
Choose gap-sized plays
Select one or two channels capable of producing the required volume within the available budget and skills.
Pro tip Prefer channels the team can learn deeply.
Watch out Do not launch more plays than the team can operate well.
- 6
Review and recalibrate
Compare actual results with the model and update channel requirements regularly.
Pro tip Review leading indicators before waiting for final revenue.
In the wild
A SaaS company targets 100 new customers per month. Existing outbound campaigns can reasonably supply 70, leaving a gap of 30. At a 20% purchase rate, marketing needs 150 qualified sign-ups; at a 10% visitor-to-sign-up rate, it needs 1,500 additional visits. The team selects one search play designed around that requirement rather than launching several unrelated channels.
→ The team gains a measurable acquisition plan and a clear threshold for judging the new channel.
Common mistakes
Choosing channels before setting the goal
Without a quantified outcome, the team cannot tell whether a proposed play is appropriately sized or successful.
Ignoring current channel capacity
Treating the entire target as new demand wastes proven strengths and exaggerates the need for diversification.
Using fantasy conversion rates
Optimistic assumptions make the plan look viable while hiding the real traffic or lead requirement.
Is it for you?
Best for
It is best for small marketing teams that must hit a growth target with limited money and capacity.
Not ideal for
It is not ideal when the company lacks basic product-market fit or reliable conversion data.
From the transcript
“once you have a goal you can work backward to know what you actually need to do”
“it actually tells you what those plays might need to be”
“the CEO and Craig should be deeply aligned on like hey we think we've got a model a basic model here that's going to get…”
From the episode
6 Marketing Problems Solved In 53 Minutes With Dave Gerhardt
Dave Gerhardt