Indirect Marketing Progress Ladder
Prove harder-to-attribute marketing through customer change.
- Difficulty
- Moderate
- Time to result
- ~months to results
- Steps
- 7
- Confidence
- 99%
Start by aligning the marketing team, CEO, CFO, and other leaders on a specific customer-experience problem, such as low product awareness or weak consideration. Select the appropriate intervention only after defining that problem. Then replace dollar-for-dollar attribution with a chain of evidence: the activity should change a measurable customer state, that state should have an explicit assumed relationship to revenue, and subsequent business results should test whether the relationship holds. Surveys can track shifts in perception, awareness, and consideration, while other indicators can provide supporting evidence. Reporting focuses on meaningful prospect or customer progress rather than the number of campaigns, assets, or events completed. This allows a new marketing leader to remain accountable without pretending that indirect work has the same attribution profile as direct-response demand generation.
Origin
Extracted from Marketing Against The Grain
Core principles
- 01Begin with the customer problem rather than a preferred campaign.
- 02Indirect contribution can still produce measurable progress.
- 03Activities are inputs, not proof of success.
- 04Awareness, perception, and consideration are legitimate intermediate outcomes.
- 05Revenue assumptions should be explicit and tested over time.
- 06Leadership alignment must precede execution.
How to run it
- 1
Align on the Problem
Agree with the marketing and leadership teams on the customer-experience problem that needs to change.
Pro tip Phrase the problem as an observable customer condition.
Watch out Starting with a favored campaign makes later measurement arbitrary.
- 2
Match the Intervention
Choose work suited to the diagnosed problem, such as demand generation for a missing funnel or product marketing for weak product understanding.
Pro tip Explain why the intervention should alter the customer condition.
Watch out Do not use indirect marketing when the actual gap is a broken direct foundation.
- 3
Define Customer Progress
Specify the awareness, perception, consideration, or other customer state expected to move.
Pro tip Set a baseline before launching the work.
Watch out Completed activities are not customer outcomes.
- 4
Select Evidence
Use surveys and relevant behavioral or market indicators to assess whether the intended change occurs.
Pro tip Combine multiple indicators when any single measure is noisy.
Watch out Avoid manufacturing false precision from a weak proxy.
- 5
State the Revenue Hypothesis
Document the assumed relationship between the intermediate customer change and future revenue. Include the expected direction and time horizon.
Pro tip Present the relationship as a testable assumption rather than established causality.
Watch out Do not promise direct attribution when the mechanism is indirect.
- 6
Report Meaningful Movement
Show leadership the change among prospects and customers, not merely the quantity of marketing activity delivered.
Pro tip Use a consistent executive scorecard across reporting periods.
Watch out Activity-heavy reporting reinforces skepticism.
- 7
Test the Chain Over Time
Compare later commercial performance with the predicted effects of increased awareness, perception, or consideration. Revise the hypothesis and investment when evidence diverges.
Pro tip Allow for the lag appropriate to the buying cycle.
Watch out Do not claim success from correlation without acknowledging uncertainty.
In the wild
A new marketing leader learns that prospects do not understand what the company sells. The team launches product marketing and a product-level brand campaign, surveys awareness and consideration before and after, and states an explicit hypothesis linking improved consideration to future revenue.
→ Executives can evaluate customer progress before complete revenue attribution becomes available.
Leadership initially requests a broad brand campaign, but diagnosis shows the company lacks a reliable lead or sign-up path. The marketing leader prioritizes the measurable demand-generation foundation first and reserves indirect investment for the next diagnosed problem.
→ The intervention matches the actual constraint rather than the team's preferred tactic.
Common mistakes
Reporting Activity as Progress
The number of assets, campaigns, or launches says little about whether prospects or customers changed.
Skipping Executive Alignment
Without agreement on the problem and evidence standard, leaders may reject the work even when useful indicators improve.
Claiming Dollar-for-Dollar Causality
Indirect metrics support a chain of evidence, not the same causal precision claimed by direct-response attribution.
Is it for you?
Best for
It is best for marketing leaders who need executive support for product marketing, brand, awareness, or consideration initiatives.
Not ideal for
It is not ideal when the proposed activity lacks a defined customer problem or any observable intermediate outcome.
From the transcript
“you can survey change in perception, awareness, consideration, all of those things.”
“And you can have assumptions that a change in consideration will drive revenue at a certain rate, and you can see if over time that…”
“It is this is how we're making meaningful progress with our prospects and customers.”
From the episode
The Future of Marketing, Disruptive Business Models, Growing in Unfair Ways