Matters-Might-Probably Priority Filter
Classify initiatives by strategic importance and fund only what truly matters
- Difficulty
- Moderate
- Time to result
- ~weeks to results
- Steps
- 6
- Confidence
- 99%
Place proposed work into three categories: what really matters, what might matter, and what probably does not matter. During rapid growth, organizations often add headcount in all three because abundant capital allows speculative activity and avoids difficult choices. Under tighter conditions, managers must distinguish the work that directly advances the next 12 to 24 months from attractive but nonessential initiatives. Fund the first category, test only the most promising items in the second, and stop or defer the third. The filter makes uncertainty visible rather than pretending every project is essential. It also assigns responsibility to managers, because saying no means accepting the consequences if their judgment later proves wrong.
Origin
Extracted from Marketing Against The Grain from Kieran Flanagan's three-bucket model for managing resources during the shift from fast growth to capital efficiency.
Core principles
- 01Not all plausible work deserves investment
- 02Fast growth hides weak prioritization by funding every category
- 03Capital constraints require explicit trade-offs
- 04Saying no creates accountability for strategic judgment
How to run it
- 1
List the Work
Create one inventory of active and proposed initiatives competing for people, time, or budget.
Pro tip Include executive requests and legacy commitments rather than treating them as automatically exempt.
Watch out An incomplete inventory hides the true opportunity cost.
- 2
Define the Strategic Test
Specify the outcomes and time horizon that determine whether an initiative matters.
Pro tip Use the next 12 to 24 months when that matches the organization's planning window.
Watch out Without a shared test, classification becomes a contest of personal influence.
- 3
Sort Into Three Buckets
Classify each initiative as really matters, might matter, or probably does not matter.
Pro tip Record the evidence and uncertainty behind each choice.
Watch out Do not place everything in the first category to avoid conflict.
- 4
Resource What Matters
Give the first category sufficient ownership, time, and capital to succeed before funding speculative work.
Pro tip Check whether the category is still too large to represent real focus.
Watch out Underfunding many critical initiatives is equivalent to not prioritizing.
- 5
Bound the Experiments
For selected might-matter initiatives, define small tests, decision dates, and success thresholds.
Pro tip Use reversible experiments to buy information cheaply.
Watch out Unbounded experiments quietly become permanent programs.
- 6
Stop the Rest
Decline, pause, or remove work that probably does not matter, and communicate the rationale.
Pro tip Maintain a record of deferred ideas so saying no does not require pretending they have no value.
Watch out Keeping low-priority projects alive unofficially continues consuming capacity.
In the wild
A marketing leader classifies pipeline optimization as really important, a new community as potentially important, and a broad events expansion as unlikely to affect the next 18 months. The team fully funds pipeline work, runs a six-week community test, and defers the events expansion.
→ Resources concentrate on the near-term growth engine while one uncertain idea earns a bounded chance to prove itself.
Common mistakes
Calling Everything Critical
If every initiative really matters, the framework produces no trade-off and resources remain fragmented.
Avoiding Accountability Through Activity
Doing everything feels safer, but it prevents the manager from making and owning the strategic choices the role requires.
Treating Buckets as Permanent
New evidence can change an initiative's importance, so classifications require periodic review.
Is it for you?
Best for
It is best for teams with more possible initiatives than available time, people, or capital.
Not ideal for
It is not ideal when leaders lack a defined strategy against which importance can be judged.
From the transcript
“You have the stuff that really, really matters. You have the stuff that might matter, and then you have the stuff that probably doesn't matter.”
“when you have to become more capital efficient, you actually have to really just focus on the things that truly matter.”
“It's easier just to do everything, right?”
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