The Law of Shitty Click-Throughs
Enter emerging channels before competition erodes their performance
- Difficulty
- Moderate
- Time to result
- ~ongoing to results
- Steps
- 5
- Confidence
- 98%
The model treats every marketing channel as a depreciating opportunity. A new format initially attracts attention because audiences have not learned to ignore it and few marketers compete there. Strong results draw more participants, who copy successful tactics, increase inventory pressure, and train audiences to filter the format out. Performance therefore declines while the sophistication required to stand out rises. Marketers must choose between smaller emerging channels with attractive efficiency and mature channels with greater reach but heavier competition. The practical response is not to abandon every established channel; it is to monitor marginal performance, maintain a portfolio of channels, and continually test new surfaces. Startups should lean toward emerging channels where incumbents have not yet established overwhelming advantages, while large brands may retain mature channels because they can tolerate longer payback periods.
Origin
Andrew Chen developed the model after comparing the enormous click-through rates of the internet's first banner advertisements with the tiny rates produced by mature advertising networks. Extracted from Marketing Against the Grain.
Core principles
- 01Novel channels initially benefit from curiosity and low competition.
- 02Every successful acquisition channel attracts imitators.
- 03Competition and audience habituation reduce response rates over time.
- 04Established channels offer scale but demand greater differentiation.
- 05Startups gain an advantage by exploring channels incumbents consider too small.
How to run it
- 1
Map the channel portfolio
List every acquisition channel and classify it as emerging, growing, mature, or declining. Record its reach, conversion performance, cost, and strategic importance.
Pro tip Evaluate individual channels rather than treating all paid, organic, or social activity as one category.
Watch out A large audience does not necessarily mean attractive acquisition economics.
- 2
Measure deterioration
Track response rates, acquisition costs, conversion rates, and creative fatigue over time. Look for sustained deterioration rather than reacting to one noisy period.
Pro tip Compare marginal performance from new spend with historical averages.
Watch out Platform attribution changes can resemble genuine channel decay.
- 3
Assess the complexity tax
Determine how much additional targeting, creative production, and optimization are now required to maintain results. Rising complexity is evidence that competition and habituation are advancing.
Pro tip Document how campaign requirements have changed over successive quarters.
Watch out Do not confuse avoidable execution problems with structural saturation.
- 4
Explore neglected channels
Run bounded experiments on new platforms, formats, communities, or distribution mechanisms. Accept smaller initial reach in exchange for learning and potentially superior efficiency.
Pro tip Look for channels too small or unconventional to interest major incumbents.
Watch out Do not assume novelty alone creates product-channel fit.
- 5
Rebalance continuously
Shift resources toward channels with favorable marginal returns while retaining mature channels that still serve scale or brand objectives. Repeat the review as audience attention moves.
Pro tip Reserve a fixed portion of the budget for frontier experiments.
Watch out Leaving a mature channel too abruptly can destroy useful demand capture.
In the wild
The earliest website banner advertisements reportedly earned extraordinary click-through rates because the format was unfamiliar. After years of widespread adoption, competing advertisements and audience habituation pushed typical rates toward a fraction of one percent.
→ Marketers needed stronger targeting and creative execution merely to preserve a small share of the original response.
Instead of immediately competing with global brands on a mature paid platform, a new AI product builds a focused Discord community of 10,000 relevant users. The channel cannot provide mass-market scale yet, but it supplies early customers, feedback, and advocates at a manageable cost.
→ The startup establishes initial traction before expanding into more competitive channels.
Common mistakes
Chasing scale before efficiency
A team chooses the largest available channel even though established competitors have made it prohibitively expensive. Scale cannot compensate for structurally poor unit economics.
Treating decay as an execution-only problem
A team repeatedly changes copy while ignoring the channel's declining attention and increasing competition. Better execution may slow deterioration but cannot permanently reverse saturation.
Abandoning mature channels automatically
The law describes deterioration, not universal uselessness. A mature channel may remain valuable for demand capture, brand presence, or organizations with long payback periods.
Is it for you?
Best for
It is best for growth teams allocating resources across channels at different stages of maturity.
Not ideal for
It is not ideal for organizations unable to run controlled experiments or tolerate uncertain early-channel volume.
From the transcript
“the law of shitty click-throughs”
“marketers are sort of in a Perpetual kind of forever war with with each other”
“if you are a startup and you are um building something from scratch you have to go where all the new innovation is”
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